A probable cause of epidemics - Extracts from Mr Suessmilch's
tables - Periodical returns of sickly seasons to be expected in
certain cases - Proportion of births to burials for short periods
in any country an inadequate criterion of the real average
increase of population - Best criterion of a permanent increase
of population - Great frugality of living one of the causes of
the famines of China and Indostan - Evil tendency of one of the
clauses in Mr Pitt's Poor Bill - Only one proper way of
encouraging population - Causes of the Happiness of nations -
Famine, the last and most dreadful mode by which nature represses
a redundant population - The three propositions considered as
established.
BY great attention to cleanliness, the plague seems at length to
be completely expelled from London. But it is not improbable that
among the secondary causes that produce even sickly seasons and
epidemics ought to be ranked a crowded population and unwholesome
and insufficient food. I have been led to this remark, by looking
over some of the tables of Mr Suessmilch, which Dr Price has
extracted in one of his notes to the postscript on the
controversy respecting the population of England and Wales. They
are considered as very correct, and if such tables were general,
they would throw great light on the different ways by which
population is repressed and prevented from increasing beyond the
means of subsistence in any country. I will extract a part of the
tables, with Dr Price's remarks.
IN THE KINGDOM 0F PRUSSIA, AND DUKEDOM OF LITHUANIA
Mar- Proportion Proportion
Annual Average Births Burials riages of Births to of Births to
Marriages Burials
10 Yrs to 1702 21,963 14,718 5,928 37 to 10 150 to 100
5 Yrs to 1716 21,602 11,984 4,968 37 to 10 180 to 100
5 Yrs to 1756 28,392 19,154 5,599 50 to 10 148 to 100
'N.B. In 1709 and 1710, a pestilence carried off 247,733 of the
inhabitants of this country, and in 1736 and 1737, epidemics
prevailed, which again checked its increase.'
It may be remarked, that the greatest proportion of births to
burials, was in the five years after the great pestilence.
DUCHY OF POMERANIA
Mar- Proportion Proportion
Annual Average Births Burials riages of Births to of Births to
Marriages Burials
6 yrs to 1702 6,540 4,647 1,810 36 to 10 140 to 100
6 yrs to 1708 7,455 4,208 1,875 39 to 10 177 to 100
6 yrs to 1726 8,432 5,627 2,131 39 to 10 150 to 100
6 yrs to 1756 12,767 9,281 2,957 43 to 10 137 to 100
'In this instance the inhabitants appear to have been almost
doubled in fifty-six years, no very bad epidemics having once
interrupted the increase, but the three years immediately following
the last period (to 1759) were so sickly that the births were
sunk to 10,229 and the burials raised to 15,068.'
Is it not probable that in this case the number of
inhabitants had increased faster than the food and the
accommodations necessary to preserve them in health? The mass of
the people would, upon this supposition, be obliged to live
harder, and a greater number would be crowded together in one
house, and it is not surely improbable that these were among the
natural causes that produced the three sickly years. These causes
may produce such an effect, though the country, absolutely
considered, may not be extremely crowded and populous. In a
country even thinly inhabited, if an increase of population take
place, before more food is raised, and more houses are built, the
inhabitants must be distressed in some degree for room and
subsistence. Were the marriages in England, for the next eight or
ten years, to be more prolifick than usual, or even were a
greater number of marriages than usual to take place, supposing
the number of houses to remain the same, instead of five or six
to a cottage, there must be seven or eight, and this, added to
the necessity of harder living, would probably have a very
unfavourable effect on the health of the common people.
NEUMARK OF BRANDENBURGH
Mar- Proportion Proportion
Annual Average Births Burials riages of Births to of Births to
Marriages Burials
5 yrs to 1701 5,433 3,483 1,436 37 to 10 155 to 100
5 yrs to 1726 7,012 4,254 1,713 40 to 10 164 to 100
5 yrs to 1756 7,978 5,567 1,891 42 to 10 143 to 100
'Epidemics prevailed for six years, from 1736, to 1741, which
checked the increase.'
DUKEDOM OF MAGDEBURGH
Mar- Proportion Proportion
Annual Average Births Burials riages of Births to of Births to
Marriages Burials
5 yrs to 1702 6,431 4,103 1,681 38 to 10 156 to 100
5 yrs to 1717 7,590 5,335 2,076 36 to 10 142 to 100
5 yrs to 1756 8,850 8,069 2,193 40 to 10 109 to 100
'The years 1738, 1740, 1750, and 1751, were particularly
sickly.'
For further information on this subject, I refer the reader
to Mr Suessmilch's tables. The extracts that I have made are
sufficient to shew the periodical, though irregular, returns of
sickly seasons, and it seems highly probable that a scantiness of
room and food was one of the principal causes that occasioned
them.
It appears from the tables that these countries were
increasing rather fast for old states, notwithstanding the
occasional seasons that prevailed. Cultivation must have been
improving, and marriages, consequently, encouraged. For the
checks to population appear to have been rather of the positive,
than of the preventive kind. When from a prospect of increasing
plenty in any country, the weight that represses population is in
some degree removed, it is highly probable that the motion will
be continued beyond the operation of the cause that first
impelled it. Or, to be more particular, when the increasing
produce of a country, and the increasing demand for labour, so
far ameliorate the condition of the labourer as greatly to
encourage marriage, it is probable that the custom of early
marriages will continue till the population of the country has
gone beyond the increased produce, and sickly seasons appear to
be the natural and necessary consequence. I should expect,
therefore, that those countries where subsistence was increasing
sufficiency at times to encourage population but not to answer
all its demands, would be more subject to periodical epidemics
than those where the population could more completely accommodate
itself to the average produce.
An observation the converse of this will probably also be
found true. In those countries that are subject to periodical
sicknesses, the increase of population, or the excess of births
above the burials, will be greater in the intervals of these
periods than is usual, caeteris paribus, in the countries not so
much subject to such disorders. If Turkey and Egypt have been
nearly stationary in their average population for the last
century, in the intervals of their periodical plagues, the births
must have exceeded the burials in a greater proportion than in
such countries as France and England.
The average proportion of births to burials in any country
for a period of five to ten years, will hence appear to be a very
inadequate criterion by which to judge of its real progress in
population. This proportion certainly shews the rate of increase
during those five or ten years; but we can by no means thence
infer what had been the increase for the twenty years before, or
what would be the increase for the twenty years after. Dr Price
observes that Sweden, Norway, Russia, and the kingdom of Naples,
are increasing fast; but the extracts from registers that he has
given are not for periods of sufficient extent to establish the
fact. It is highly probable, however, that Sweden, Norway, and
Russia, are really increasing their population, though not at the
rate that the proportion of births to burials for the short
periods that Dr Price takes would seem to shew. (See Dr Price's
Observations, Vol. ii, postscript to the controversy on the
population of England and Wales.) For five years, ending in 1777,
the proportion of births to burials in the kingdom of Naples was
144 to 100, but there is reason to suppose that this proportion
would indicate an increase much greater than would be really
found to have taken place in that kingdom during a period of a
hundred years.
Dr Short compared the registers of many villages and market
towns in England for two periods; the first, from Queen Elizabeth
to the middle of the last century, and the second, from different
years at the end of the last century to the middle of the
present. And from a comparison of these extracts, it appears that
in the former period the births exceeded the burials in the
proportion of 124 to 100, but in the latter, only in the
proportion of 111 to 100. Dr Price thinks that the registers in
the former period are not to be depended upon, but, probably, in
this instance they do not give incorrect proportions. At least
there are many reasons for expecting to find a greater excess of
births above the burials in the former period than in the latter.
In the natural progress of the population of any country, more
good land will, caeteris paribus, be taken into cultivation in
the earlier stages of it than in the later. (I say 'caeteris
paribus', because the increase of the produce of any country will
always very greatly depend on the spirit of industry that
prevails, and the way in which it is directed. The knowledge and
habits of the people, and other temporary causes, particularly
the degree of civil liberty and equality existing at the time,
must always have great influence in exciting and directing this
spirit.) And a greater proportional yearly increase of produce
will almost invariably be followed by a greater proportional
increase of population. But, besides this great cause, which
would naturally give the excess of births above burials greater
at the end of Queen Elizabeth's reign than in the middle of the
present century, I cannot help thinking that the occasional
ravages of the plague in the former period must have had some
tendency to increase this proportion. If an average of ten years
had been taken in the intervals of the returns of this dreadful
disorder, or if the years of plague had been rejected as
accidental, the registers would certainly give the proportion of
births to burials too high for the real average increase of the
population. For some few years after the great plague in 1666, it
is probable that there was a more than usual excess of births
above burials, particularly if Dr Price's opinion be founded,
that England was more populous at the revolution (which happened
only twenty-two years afterwards) than it is at present.
Mr King, in 1693, stated the proportion of the births to the
burials throughout the Kingdom, exclusive of London, as 115 to
100. Dr Short makes it, in the middle of the present century, 111
to 100, including London. The proportion in France for five
years, ending in 1774, was 117 to 100. If these statements are
near the truth; and if there are no very great variations at
particular periods in the proportions, it would appear that the
population of France and England has accommodated itself very
nearly to the average produce of each country. The
discouragements to marriage, the consequent vicious habits, war,
luxury, the silent though certain depopulation of large towns,
and the close habitations, and insufficient food of many of the
poor, prevent population from increasing beyond the means of
subsistence; and, if I may use an expression which certainly at
first appears strange, supercede the necessity of great and
ravaging epidemics to repress what is redundant. Were a wasting
plague to sweep off two millions in England, and six millions in
France, there can be no doubt whatever that, after the
inhabitants had recovered from the dreadful shock, the proportion
of births to burials would be much above what it is in either
country at present.
In New Jersey, the proportion of births to deaths on an
average of seven years, ending in 1743, was as 300 to 100. In
France and England, taking the highest proportion, it is as 117
to 100. Great and astonishing as this difference is, we ought not
to be so wonder-struck at it as to attribute it to the miraculous
interposition of heaven. The causes of it are not remote, latent
and mysterious; but near us, round about us, and open to the
investigation of every inquiring mind. It accords with the most
liberal spirit of philosophy to suppose that not a stone can
fall, or a plant rise, without the immediate agency of divine
power. But we know from experience that these operations of what
we call nature have been conducted almost invariably according to
fixed laws. And since the world began, the causes of population
and depopulation have probably been as constant as any of the
laws of nature with which we are acquainted.
The passion between the sexes has appeared in every age to be
so nearly the same that it may always be considered, in algebraic
language, as a given quantity. The great law of necessity which
prevents population from increasing in any country beyond the
food which it can either produce or acquire, is a law so open to
our view, so obvious and evident to our understandings, and so
completely confirmed by the experience of every age, that we
cannot for a moment doubt it. The different modes which nature
takes to prevent or repress a redundant population do not appear,
indeed, to us so certain and regular, but though we cannot always
predict the mode we may with certainty predict the fact. If the
proportion of births to deaths for a few years indicate an
increase of numbers much beyond the proportional increased or
acquired produce of the country, we may be perfectly certain that
unless an emigration takes place, the deaths will shortly exceed
the births; and that the increase that had taken place for a few
years cannot be the real average increase of the population of
the country. Were there no other depopulating causes, every
country would, without doubt, be subject to periodical
pestilences or famine.
The only true criterion of a real and permanent increase in
the population of any country is the increase of the means of
subsistence. But even, this criterion is subject to some slight
variations which are, however, completely open to our view and
observations. In some countries population appears to have been
forced, that is, the people have been habituated by degrees to
live almost upon the smallest possible quantity of food. There
must have been periods in such counties when population increased
permanently, without an increase in the means of subsistence.
China seems to answer to this description. If the accounts we
have of it are to be trusted, the lower classes of people are in
the habit of living almost upon the smallest possible quantity of
food and are glad to get any putrid offals that European
labourers would rather starve than eat. The law in China which
permits parents to expose their children has tended principally
thus to force the population. A nation in this state must
necessarily be subject to famines. Where a country is so populous
in proportion to the means of subsistence that the average
produce of it is but barely sufficient to support the lives of
the inhabitants, any deficiency from the badness of seasons must
be fatal. It is probable that the very frugal manner in which the
Gentoos are in the habit of living contributes in some degree to
the famines of Indostan.
In America, where the reward of labour is at present so
liberal, the lower classes might retrench very considerably in a
year of scarcity without materially distressing themselves. A
famine therefore seems to be almost impossible. It may be
expected that in the progress of the population of America, the
labourers will in time be much less liberally rewarded. The
numbers will in this case permanently increase without a
proportional increase in the means of subsistence.
In the different states of Europe there must be some
variations in the proportion between the number of inhabitants
and the quantity of food consumed, arising from the different
habits of living that prevail in each state. The labourers of the
South of England are so accustomed to eat fine wheaten bread that
they will suffer themselves to be half starved before they will
submit to live like the Scotch peasants. They might perhaps in
time, by the constant operation of the hard law of necessity, be
reduced to live even like the Lower Chinese, and the country
would then, with the same quantity of food, support a greater
population. But to effect this must always be a most difficult,
and, every friend to humanity will hope, an abortive attempt.
Nothing is so common as to hear of encouragements that ought to
be given to population. If the tendency of mankind to increase be
so great as I have represented it to be, it may appear strange
that this increase does not come when it is thus repeatedly
called for. The true reason is that the demand for a greater
population is made without preparing the funds necessary to
support it. Increase the demand for agricultural labour by
promoting cultivation, and with it consequently increase the
produce of the country, and ameliorate the condition of the
labourer, and no apprehensions whatever need be entertained of
the proportional increase of population. An attempt to effect
this purpose in any other way is vicious, cruel, and tyrannical,
and in any state of tolerable freedom cannot therefore succeed.
It may appear to be the interest of the rulers, and the rich of a
state, to force population, and thereby lower the price of
labour, and consequently the expense of fleets and armies, and
the cost of manufactures for foreign sale; but every attempt of
the kind should be carefully watched and strenuously resisted by
the friends of the poor, particularly when it comes under the
deceitful garb of benevolence, and is likely, on that account, to
be cheerfully and cordially received by the common people.
I entirely acquit Mr Pitt of any sinister intention in that
clause of his Poor Bill which allows a shilling a week to every
labourer for each child he has above three. I confess, that
before the bill was brought into Parliament, and for some time
after, I thought that such a regulation would be highly
beneficial, but further reflection on the subject has convinced
me that if its object be to better the condition of the poor, it
is calculated to defeat the very purpose which it has in view. It
has no tendency that I can discover to increase the produce of
the country, and if. It tend to increase the population, without
increasing the produce, the necessary and inevitable consequence
appears to be that the same produce must be divided among a
greater number, and consequently that a day's labour will
purchase a smaller quantity of provisions, and the poor therefore
in general must be more distressed.
I have mentioned some cases where population may permanently
increase without a proportional increase in the means of
subsistence. But it is evident that the variation in different
states, between the food and the numbers supported by it, is
restricted to a limit beyond which it cannot pass. In every
country, the population of which is not absolutely decreasing,
the food must be necessarily sufficient to support, and to
continue, the race of labourers.
Other circumstances being the same, it may be affirmed that
countries are populous according to the quantity of human food
which they produce, and happy according to the liberality with
which that food is divided, or the quantity which a day's labour
will purchase. Corn countries are more populous than pasture
countries, and rice countries more populous than corn countries.
The lands in England are not suited to rice, but they would all
bear potatoes; and Dr Adam Smith observes that if potatoes were
to become the favourite vegetable food of the common people, and
if the same quantity of land was employed in their culture as is
now employed in the culture of corn, the country would be able to
support a much greater population, and would consequently in a
very short time have it.
The happiness of a country does not depend, absolutely, upon
its poverty or its riches, upon its youth or its age, upon its
being thinly or fully inhabited, but upon the rapidity with which
it is increasing, upon the degree in which the yearly increase of
food approaches to the yearly increase of an unrestricted
population. This approximation is always the nearest in new
colonies, where the knowledge and industry of an old state
operate on the fertile unappropriated land of a new one. In other
cases, the youth or the age of a state is not in this respect of
very great importance. It is probable that the food of Great
Britain is divided in as great plenty to the inhabitants, at the
present period, as it was two thousand, three thousand, or four
thousand years ago. And there is reason to believe that the poor
and thinly inhabited tracts of the Scotch Highlands are as much
distressed by an overcharged population as the rich and populous
province of Flanders.
Were a country never to be overrun by a people more advanced
in arts, but left to its own natural progress in civilization;
from the time that its produce might be considered as an unit, to
the time that it might be considered as a million, during the
lapse of many hundred years, there would not be a single period
when the mass of the people could be said to be free from
distress, either directly or indirectly, for want of food. In
every state in Europe, since we have first had accounts of it,
millions and millions of human existences have been repressed
from this simple cause; though perhaps in some of these states an
absolute famine has never been known.
Famine seems to be the last, the most dreadful resource of
nature. The power of population is so superior to the power in
the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death
must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of
mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are
the precursors in the great army of destruction; and often finish
the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of
extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague,
advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and ten
thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic
inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow
levels the population with the food of the world.
Must it not then be acknowledged by an attentive examiner of
the histories of mankind, that in every age and in every state in
which man has existed, or does now exist.
That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the
means of subsistence.
That population does invariably increase when the means of
subsistence increase. And that the superior power of
population it repressed, and the actual population kept equal to
the means of subsistence, by misery and vice?